ICICI Securities Limited rates CESC Ltd Buy
BUY, TP INR176 (earlier INR220), SoTP-based: DCF for core/regulated and subsidiaries, EV/EBITDA for renewables; total value INR235,491mn on 1,330mn shares.
By ScoutQuest · · 1 min read
- Report date
- 10 Nov 2026
From the report
The figures below are as printed in the report by ICICI Securities Limited.
- Rating
- Buy
- Target
- INR 176from INR 220
- Price at report
- INR 129
- Upside to target
- 36.4%from the price at report, worked out from the two figures above
- Valuation
- SOTP
- Report
- result update
SoTP-based target: DCF for core/regulated and subsidiary businesses plus EV/EBITDA for renewables, totaling INR 176/share.
Estimate changes
- Revenue FY27E: (1)%
- Revenue FY28E: 0%
- EBITDA FY27E: (3)%
- EBITDA FY28E: 0%
- EPS FY27E: (4)%
- EPS FY28E: (1)%
Catalysts
The broker's points, summarised.
- RE capacity addition progress
- RE bid wins / portfolio ramp-up
- Solar cell and module manufacturing foray
- Kolkata tariff order
Risks
The broker's points, summarised.
- Delay in RE capacity addition
- Higher build-up of regulatory assets
Analysts: Mohit Kumar, Mahesh Patil, Abhinav Nalawade, Shubham Borade
Renewable scale-up underpins the growth thesis
CESC targets 10GW of renewable capacity and has 4.9GWp contracted, including a 1.4GWp operating portfolio it agreed to buy from ReNew Power at an enterprise value of INR48bn. It also won 245MW of bids during the quarter and has outlined INR260bn of capex for renewable generation.
Quarterly results came in broadly in line
Revenue rose 7% YoY to INR57.6bn on better-than-expected Noida power, but EBITDA was flat at INR11.4bn and adjusted PAT held at INR4.4bn.
Operating performance improved across regions
Power sales grew 8% YoY to 6.4BU, led by Noida and Kolkata, and standalone generation rose 16% to 1.7BU, while T&D losses contracted about 120bps at Noida and 400bps at Chandigarh.
The RE purchase looks expensive
ICICI Securities Limited estimates the 1.4GWp acquisition at around 9x EV/EBITDA, which it views as on the higher side, though the portfolio carries an estimated INR29bn of locked-in EBITDA.
Kolkata tariff order allows no hike
The FY24-26 order disallows a tariff increase, but CESC is recovering under-recovery through fuel and power purchase surcharges, which should slow the build-up of regulatory assets.
ICICI Securities Limited's call
ICICI Securities Limited maintains BUY with a target price of INR176, reduced from INR220, on the view that CESC is executing its renewable expansion while its regulated businesses generate steady cash flows. The target comes from a sum-of-the-parts valuation applying DCF to the core and regulated business and to subsidiaries including Dhariwal, Haldia, Crescent Power, the distribution franchisees, Noida Power and Chandigarh distribution, with EV/EBITDA used for renewables, giving total value of INR235,491mn across 1,330mn shares.
Also from CESC
CESC to attend four investor conferences in Mumbai between 16 and 26 November 2026
10 Nov 2026
CESC to attend four investor conferences in Mumbai between 16 and 26 November 2026
10 Nov 2026
CESC to participate in four investor conferences in Mumbai between 16 and 26 November 2026
10 Nov 2026
The call above is ICICI Securities Limited's, reported here as they made it. Nothing here is a view, opinion or recommendation of ScoutQuest, its parent, directors or employees. ScoutQuest is a technology company: this page was assembled automatically from public sources using artificial intelligence, and may contain errors or omissions. Confirm everything against the original source before you act on it. Any use of this page is at your own risk, and neither ScoutQuest nor its parent, directors or employees accepts liability for it.